Arete ISO Accreditation Renewed!

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We are delighted to announce that our ISO accreditation has been successfully renewed in line with international standards. ISO is one of the most rigorous and well-regarded standards in the world and our accreditation once again demonstrates our commitment to maintaining the very highest standards of service delivery.   

At Arete, we understand the importance of following best practices in everything we do and our dedicated team will continue to ensure you enjoy the very highest risk management service levels.  Arete is internationally accredited to the highest international standards including ISO 9001; ISO 18788; ISO 45001; ISO 14001 and ANSI/ASIS PSC 1.

Our Managing Director, Sven Hanson MBE said;

” “Arete” is a concept that, in its most basic sense, refers to excellence of any kind.  This concept is bound to the notion of the fulfillment of purpose or function – the act of living up to one’s full potential – and the striving towards that potential or purpose.  At Arete we strive endlessly to deliver our risk management services to our clients to the very highest of standards, at all times, in order to protect them from the range of Quality, Health, Safety, Security, and Environment (QHSSE) risks they face”.  He adds: “I am extremely proud of our team for this achievement, which not only reflects the hard work and continuing commitment to quality within Arete but also serves to demonstrate our commitment to delivering the very best possible service levels to our clients.” 

Royal Navy to join security forces in the Gulf of Guinea

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On the 10th of August, we published news that the US Navy vessel USS Hershel “Woody” Williams arrived in Lagos, Nigeria as part of the U.S. government’s support to help combat piracy in the Gulf of Guinea. According to news reports, the U.K. has also joined in this effort. Royal Navy patrol ship HMS Trent is reported to be setting sail to the Gulf of Guinea to undertake security patrols and a mission to support allies in West Africa.

Becoming the first Royal Navy vessel to operate in the area for three years, the deployment is meant to demonstrate the UK’s commitment to being more persistently engaged in the region as international efforts are concentrating on improving security in the Gulf of Guinea after a very violent 2020, which included an increase in kidnappings from commercial vessels.

The Maritime Executive reports that during her deployment to the Gulf of Guinea, she will also conduct maritime security patrols as well as support partner navies by helping them to develop key maritime skills and develop plans for future operations in the region. HMS Trent carries onboard a contingent of Royal Marines from 42 Commando, which will train partner forces across the region in skills like boarding and searching of suspicious vessels, as well as evidence handling and medical skills. The team is trained in boarding operations which will help the fight against illegal activity like piracy, drugs-smuggling, and terrorism.

“This deployment demonstrates how Britain is stepping up on the world stage to tackle shared international security challenges,” said the U.K.’s Armed Forces Minister James Heappey. “Working hand-in-hand with our allies we are utilizing our forward-deployed Armed Forces to tackle threats at the source, making the world a safer place for all.”

You can read the full Maritime Executive article here – Royal Navy joins Maritime Security effort

 

#AreteQuarterly – Top 7 threats to Nigeria’s security

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The Security Risk Spectrum in Nigeria

Following a recent article by the BBC on the top 5 threats currently facing Nigeria, we have given our on-the-ground view in this article. We will be publishing articles such as this quarterly. Over the last 3 months, we have touched on some of these potential threats already, but in this first #AreteQuarterly we look in even more detail at how these tie together due to common causes, how this could affect travellers or employees in different regions and what you can do to ensure you and your colleagues stay safe.

Nigeria is a large country with the largest population in Africa.  Despite the fact that it is the largest economy in Africa, unemployment runs at 32.5%[1] and poverty is widespread through much of the country[2], which if measured against the World Bank’s income poverty threshold of $3.20 per day means 71% of the population is living below the poverty line.  These conditions of severe economic hardship generate social stresses that may be pushing people into criminality out of necessity, i.e. they end up committing crime out of need, not greed.

It is important to understand that criminality in Nigeria is dynamic and diverse. No single area of the country – even down to local government areas – presents a homogenous map of criminality.   Groups emerge and fade away almost on a weekly basis.  They might operate on a very localised basis or, in the case of the more organised crime groups, across administrative boundary lines.  Criminal groups are territorial and will fight one another for control of the areas with the richest pickings.

There are also established linkages between various social groupings and crime, with organisations such as the National Union of Road Transport Workers and the numerous confraternities being regularly linked to various criminal activities.  Corruption and nepotism also facilitate crime, creating a permissive environment where criminals operate under the umbrella of their patrons who provide the ‘top-cover’ that protects gangs from the forces of law and emboldens them.

The final factor that contributes to high levels of insecurity is the massive overstretch and under-resourcing of the police and other law-enforcement agencies.  The security agencies strive to bring criminals to court but are often frustrated when the judicial system appears unable to convict or to award punitive sentences that would deter others.

Geographically, the areas of highest risk – those with the greatest number of reported incidents – are the north-western states of Kaduna, Niger, Zamfara and Katsina, where banditry and kidnapping are the principal threats.  Borno State in the north-east still suffers a high number of security incidents, with at least 95 major incidents reported in 2021 to date, the vast majority of which are terrorist in nature.  The Niger Delta region is the next most predated area of the country, with Imo, Delta, Edo and Rivers the most affected.  The commercial capital of the country, Lagos, suffers a lower but steady rate of criminality.  Ikorodu Local Government Area is the most lethal part of the state.

It is instructive to look at various aspects of the risk spectrum individually, as they morph continually and present the security forces with an ever moving and changing target array.  However, it must also be stressed that figures quoted by all sources are incomplete as many incidents go unreported.

Terrorism

The jihadist insurgency in north-east Nigeria has seen several evolutions since the inception of Boko Haram in 2002.  The almost two decades since then have seen the Islamist group fade after its original leader died in police custody in 2009.  However, it bounced back with increased capability and capacity in 2012, following which it captured and controlled most of Borno State and adjacent areas of neighbouring states, forming the caliphate that Boko Haram aspires to.  That resurgence saw the group fracture into smaller groups, including Ansaru, which evolved into the Islamic State in the West African Province.  Currently, Boko Haram is undergoing another split following the killing of its leader, Abubakar Shekau, in a suicide bombing attack in May 2021.

The insurgency has displaced more than 2.3 million Nigerians, triggering a humanitarian crisis and a worsening case of food poverty that impacts beyond the areas immediately affected by the insurgency.

The various groups have different aims – the core of Boko Haram wants a unitary Islamic state in Nigeria with assimilation of territory in neighbouring nations.  ISWAP has a broader Islamist agenda that aims to create a much larger Islamic caliphate across the Sahel and sub-Sahelian regions of West and Central Africa.  Both these major groups use classic insurgency tactics of attacks on security forces, intimidation of the local population, extortion and kidnap for ransom to raise funds and also imposition of levies/taxes on local communities.  Foreigners, particularly westerners, are prime targets for abduction and murder, with international aid organisations also targeted in an effort to hinder their operations and prop up the local population’s dependency on the ‘benevolence’ of the jihadis.

While the government security forces continually claim to have defeated Boko Haram, the insurgency persists.  Furthermore, while it is true Boko Haram may be losing some of their influence (there are credible reports of hundreds of fighters surrendering in recent weeks), their hard-core members will likely have aligned with ISWAP and will continue the fight.  ISWAP will likely continue to focus on attacking security forces and international targets, with the latter requiring robust security packages and a healthy philosophy towards risk acceptance in order to continue to operate in North-eastern Nigeria.

Banditry

Numerous commentators have linked the jihadism with the perennial conflict between pastoralist Fulani herdsman and arable farming communities.  There are some shared characteristics, but the herdsmen are simply perpetuating a behaviour that is almost as old as the grasslands they graze.  The migratory herds follow the grass, encroaching further south as the dry season progresses.  It is an eternal dynamic that is found throughout the Sahel and sub-Sahelian regions of West, Central and East Africa.  Whilst it is technically wrong to classify these groups as terrorists, the nature of some of their attacks are almost identical to those of true terrorist groups that follow a political or faith-based goal.

Other bandit groups are prolific in the north-west of the country, specifically in Kaduna, Niger, Zamfara and Katsina States.  Several arterial routes through this region present extremely high levels of risk for travellers including the commercially vital route between Abuja and Kaduna.

Bandit groups operate illegal roadblocks and checkpoints from where they conduct robbery operations and opportunistic kidnappings of people perceived to be of wealth or high status.  This type of activity presents a particular threat to business travellers unless they travel with a large, heavily armed escort team.  Thus, air travel is preferred and the advised means of travel in this part of the country.  Other bandit tactics include raids on rural communities where they conduct looting and mass kidnapping operations.  This presents a lower level of threat for international employees/travellers, but can impact on workforces for agricultural, power and mining projects led by international companies.

Kidnapping

The “kidnapping industry” in Nigeria has expanded massively in the last 6 years.  Previously a significant threat in the Niger Delta and, to a lesser extent Lagos, kidnapping is now widespread and common throughout the country, with the rate of incidents and the number of victims per incident constantly increasing.   Geographically, the North-West, North-East and Niger Delta are the most prolific areas for kidnapping, with the highest numbers occurring in the North-West.  The raison d’etre behind the kidnapping threat also varies according to location and group.   In the South-South, most groups are driven purely by pecuniary considerations.  They tend to operate as closed groups, with the entire operation carried out from within a small circle of knowledge and using established infrastructure and methodologies.  Kidnappings in the South-South and other parts of the southern half of the country tend to be more targeted and organised, with the gangs conducting relatively sophisticated reconnaissance and pattern of life studies before the snatch occurs.

In the North-West, by comparison, the attackers are more likely to be loose groupings of bandits who sometimes will carry out only part of the operation – some snatching the victims, others holding them and others conducting the ransom dialogue.  Often in the north of the country, schools are targeted in mass-kidnapping events.  This is probably driven by an economy of effort and the knowledge that the pupils will mostly come from privileged families who have money.  Young women and girls are vulnerable to forced marriage in such instances.

Currently, the kidnapping graphs are all showing steep increases across the country and will remain a major threat to personnel for the foreseeable future.  This is unlikely to change, even in the face of an increasing number of states adopting the death penalty of kidnappers.

Kidnapping presents a significant threat to international employees, indigenous executives and notable persons within society.  For those who fall into these groups, consideration should be given to the use of private security and armed protection teams.  This must be accompanied by a thorough understanding of the threat, up to date intelligence and a high level of application of personal security best practices.

Separatism

The South-East is gripped by a separatist crisis generated by the Indigenous people of Biafra (IPOB), whose aim is to create an autonomous or independent state of Biafra (see our previous article here).  The aim is widely supported among the Igbo people of the region, but that support is far from universal, with many feeling that IPOPB attracts unwanted attention from the security forces who interfere with normal commercial life and rhythms of society in the region.  Imo State is the most affected by the separatism, with Orlu Local Government Area becoming the epicentre of attacks by the so-called ‘unknown gunmen’ and reprisal operations mounted by the security forces.

This challenge does not target international personnel directly, but the risk of being in the wrong place at the wrong time is significant in such a high tempo environment.

It is likely that the separatists will step up their attacks while the leader of IPOB, Nnamdi Kanu, remains in custody (link to our previous article).  If Kanu is convicted and jailed, they will mount a campaign to keep his name in the media spotlight and also increase their attacks on security forces as they attempt to demonstrate their resilience and determination to achieve their aims.

In the South-West, the nascent Yoruba Nation movement, led by Sunday Adeyemo, known as Igboho after his place of birth, is gaining attention following the arrest of Adeyemo and his ongoing detention in Benin Republic.  He has a history of agitation and involvement in disorder going back to 1997 and there is a strong streak of ethnic bigotry and Yoruba supremacy running through his rhetoric and previous actions.  The Yoruba Nation is agitating for an independent Yoruba state in the South-west which will see it control the commercial hub of Lagos and major international trading routes along the West African littoral.

It is likely that the Yoruba Nation will continue to agitate through the medium of protests and rallies rather than take up arms as IPOB has in the east.  These activities are unlikely to present a direct threat to international personnel or operations, but the ethno-nationalist tendency in their manifesto could lead to localised violence against indigenous employees from other tribes and ethnic groups.

Oil Militancy

Oil militancy emerged in the Niger Delta in 2006.  An armed insurgency carried out primarily by the Movement for the Emancipation of the Niger Delta (MEND) saw oil exports and revenues more than halved during the three-year campaign that led to the October 2009 Presidential Amnesty Program.  The insurgency was by no means homogenous, with numerous groups that affiliated with the MEND and in some cases which competed and clashed with MEND.

Following the amnesty, and the retirement (or deaths in some cases) of most of the major militant leaders, there followed a period of relative stability until 2016, when the Niger Delta Avengers burst onto the scene with a series of high profile and high impact attacks on key nodes in the region’s pipeline infrastructure (see our previous article on the recent threats made by the NDA).  The following 12 months saw numerous groups emerge, with the number peaking in late 2016 with a total of at least 58 groups declaring their existence.   Many of these groups had no real capability to mount attacks and were simply opportunists wanting to take advantage of any further round of amnesty payments, however some had clear capacity and capability to severely disrupt oil and gas (and shipping) operations in the region

Throughout the period since the 2009 amnesty, pipelines in the region have been ravaged by relentless hot-tapping operations and industrial scale theft of crude oil and condensate.  Illegal refineries were found throughout the region, causing immeasurable environmental damage and economic loss to the oil companies whose product was being stolen and the communities whose land and waterways were being destroyed by pollution.

An interesting development is the emergence of a new group calling itself the Movement for the Emancipation and Defence of Niger Delta, MEDND[3].  This group issued a warning that they would avenge the death of any person killed in Delta State by herdsmen.  The group appears to have the backing of the Ijaw kingpin, Chief Edwin Clarke, who was intimately associated with MEND in its day.  He is currently the leader of Southern and Middle Belt Leaders Forum, SMBLF.

Oil militancy is closely associated with sea piracy (see below), with groups operating in both capacities out of the same camps.  The oil militants regularly threaten international companies’ operations in the region, usually with a warning that personnel are not the target and should be evacuated before a given deadline.  There is little doubt that certain groups are present in the region whose threats are more than empty rhetoric and retain the capacity and intent to carry out attacks.  Threats published by militant spokesmen and warnings gained through credible intelligence sources should always be treated with great caution and the requisite risk reduction measures implemented as necessary.

Oil militancy will not go away in the near future.  The cartels stealing the crude and condensate make millions of dollars per month from their illicit activities.  They enjoy the patronage of men of influence who provide top-cover, and this has led to a situation where a status quo has been reached.  Thus, the flow of money – and from it power – into the region through illegal activities is likely to persist as long as the oil reservoirs remain productive.

Sea Piracy

The Gulf of Guinea is currently recognised as the most high-risk area for mariners anywhere in the world.  The situation grew out of the oil insurgency in the first decade of this century and it has evolved into a highly efficient operation that generates millions of dollars every month through hijacking, extortion, armed robbery and kidnapping on the high seas. Virtually all piracy in the region is linked to Nigeria and the majority to the coastal and swamp areas of the Niger Delta.

The gangs have, over the years, proven to be resilient and adaptable.  They now enjoy the advantages of operating over a huge area, with their operations now being mounted from mother ships that hunt their victims up to 200 nautical miles from nearest landfall.  This creates a massive challenge for the region’s navies, who suffer from lack of integrated intelligence gathering and response capability. Additionally, they seem able to adapt to any initiative mounted by the Nigerian Navy, and others in the region, whereby they simply change their modus operandi or operating footprint.

An example of this is seen in the last two years, when we have seen the emergence of groups that have developed the capacity to hold kidnap victims at sea, either on mother ships or vessels that have been hijacked – sometimes apparently for the sole purpose of holding a number of kidnap victims.

This threat remains potent and real for mariners operating in the region.  It is hoped that the Deep Blue project will have a positive impact, but regional cooperation and a more pragmatic approach to the use of private security will enhance any advantage gained from Deep Blue.

Petty Crime

Street crime, burglary, theft from motorists and motor vehicles and armed robbery are endemic in the urban areas of Nigeria.  These crimes are driven largely by desperation and need rather than acquisitive greed.

Petty crime will never go away in Nigeria (or any other country) and the only thing personnel can do is to educate themselves about the risks and the strategies they can adopt to reduce their profile and the attendant likelihood of being victimised.

Summary:

Clearly there are a multitude of threats and associated risks to businesses and individuals working and visiting Nigeria, however as with all risks these can be mitigated through the adoption of appropriate risk mitigation measures.  As a highly accredited, professional risk management company, Arete is able to provide whatever support is necessary to ensure your safety and security and to protect you from physical, financial and reputational loss.

 

 

 

[1] https://www.statista.com/statistics/1119227/forecasted-unemployment-rate-in-nigeria/

[2] https://theconversation.com/nigerias-poverty-profile-is-grim-its-time-to-move-beyond-handouts-163302

[3] https://www.vanguardngr.com/2021/06/militants-reply-herdsmen-vow-to-repel-attacks-on-delta/

War Risk Insurance – NIMASA expresses optimism

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In June we reported that NIMASA had requested the international maritime community to remove, or reduce, war risk insurance on Nigeria bound cargos.

This week, the Director General of NIMASA, Dr. Bashir Jamoh, met with the Executive Secretary of the Nigerian Shippers’ Council (NSC), Hon. Emmanuel Jime, and stated that he believed the continued reduction in maritime incidents seen over the last few months should lead to the removal of the insurance premiums and in an official statement following the meeting he noted that “…the sharp decrease in maritime incidents logged in IMB’s second quarter report was a valuable feedback on the NIMASA’s campaign for Nigeria’s delisting from countries under the war risk insurance burden”.

With the initial statement on the subject from NIMASA in June, Lloyds List released a response soon after stating that there were currently no plans to amend this premium and at this time we await further international response to this latest statement from the DG of NIMASA.

Worth note is while the DG referred to the IMB Q2 report for 2021 piracy showing a decline in incidents compared to 2020, Q2-Q3 have historically shown a lower rate of incidents in Nigeria due to natural factors such as weather conditions etc. and thus the international community may well need to see evidence of a decline in piracy in Nigeria for at least the next 6 months before considering any re-classification.

The removal of this insurance would obviously have huge benefits to everyone involved in the maritime trade in Nigeria (according to the non-profit Oceans Beyond Piracy’s 2020 report, the total cost of additional war risk area premiums incurred by Nigeria-bound ships transiting the Gulf was $55.5m in 2020 alone.), however any removal will likely only be predicated upon a corresponding drop in the risk of pirate attack.  We will continue to monitor for further updates.

You can read more on the meeting and statement here – NIMASA anticipates end to War Risk Insurance

 

Automating Nigeria’s Ports – #AreteNews

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There are several challenges affecting maritime trade in Nigeria. One major issue is congested ports which leads to delays and costs millions of naira in wasted time and long delivery times.

In an interview with This Day Business, the Acting Managing Director of Nigerian Ports Authority (NPA), Mohammed Bello Koko, spoke about the plan to automate the ports better using the Eto, an electronic truck call-up system that was deployed in February 2021 by the Nigeria Ports Authority (NPA).

On the Eto system, having experimented with a manual truck scheduling arrangement for over a year, the authority has introduced an electronic truck call-up system in February to streamline truck movements and eliminate traffic congestion in and around the port area. The system is to be rolled out in Lagos where Nigeria’s two busiest ports are situated and will effectively see all trucks doing business at the port in Lagos required to park at approved truck parks until they are called up into the port through an app called Eto.

The Eto application is for the scheduling, entry, and exit of cargo trucks into the port, and truck companies, terminal operators, and freight agents will be required to download the app, and then proceed to create an account to monitor the schedule and movement of their trucks.

You can read more about it here – “Full Automation of Ports is our Goal” 

At Arete, we provide risk management services to companies operating offshore, inshore and onshore.  These services include embarking Risk Management Consultants (RMCs) on clients’ principal vessels and platforms offshore. Send an email to info@arete-group.com

COVID: Nigeria High Commission in London shut down

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The Nigeria High Commission in London has shut down its operation for 10 days after two of its officials tested positive for Covid-19. This closure means all visa processing is now suspended until further notice. However, BVN processing continues. 

One of the officials returned positive after the test was administered on him when he went for a meeting at the Home office.

As a result, the Mission embarked on testing all officials after which another official tested positive.

While regretting any inconvenience the shutdown of operations might cause, the Mission in a statement said the move is to check the spread by ensuring that those who were in contact with the affected persons observe the mandatory isolation.

It reads, “This afternoon the Head of Immigration Section and two other officials went for a meeting at the Home Office.

“At the entrance, Covid test was administered on them and one of them tested positive to Covid-19. The affected officer immediately isolated while the other officials, who tested negative will also isolate for the next 10 days.

“In response to the challenge, the Mission embarked on testing all officials of the Mission, after which another official of the Mission tested positive.

“In line with Covid-19 regulation and the need to adhere to the rules and regulation of the host country, the Mission will close down for the next 10 days, in order to observe the mandatory isolation of those who were in contact with the affected officials.

“While the High Commission regrets any inconvenience that this may have caused, we solicit the cooperation of the general public.”

Please email us at info@areteafrica.com for any assistance you may need with travel planning in the coming weeks and months. We will continue to monitor the situation and provide further information on visa processing activities as they become available.

Link to the full Vanguard article here

 

US Navy Vessel Arrives in Lagos

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On Saturday, August 7, 2021, the US Navy vessel USS Hershel “Woody” Williams arrived in Nigeria’s commercial capital city of Lagos.

The vessel is part of the U.S. government’s support to help combat piracy in the Gulf of Guinea.

The Captain of the ship Captain Chad Graham had this to say – “We’re here to train and work with the Nigerian Navy on anti-piracy, tactics, techniques, and procedures.”

You can read more here – https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-08-07/u-s-navy-ship-arrives-in-nigeria-to-back-anti-piracy-push/

At Arete, we are constantly monitoring the maritime space to provide you with the latest updates and services. You can click here to get in touch with us.

Nigeria Quits MOWCA

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News broke yesterday that Nigeria has pulled out of the Maritime Organization for West and Central Africa (MOWCA). The Nigerian contingent alleged that there was a disregard for the rules of procedure regarding the suitability of candidates nominated for the position of the Secretary-General of the organisation.

While there have been reports that the country pulled out after losing the elections, in a statement signed by Eric Ojiekwe, Director of Press, Federal Ministry of Transportation, the representatives for Nigeria said: “It is sad and most depressing given Nigeria’s ardent and consistent support for MOWCA and its activities, that Nigeria as a nation must take a stand against the promotion of illegality, disrespect for the rule of law and contravention of the rules regarding the election of the Secretary General of MOWCA.

“Nigeria draws the attention of the General Assembly to the comment of MOWCA as presented by MOWCA secretariat in the annotated Agenda circulated this week to the Committee of Experts meeting, which confirmed that Nigeria is the only country that met the age eligibility criteria that candidates must not exceed 55 years.

“The candidate nominated by Nigeria was 55 years as at when nominations closed in 2020, while the candidate of Guinea was 60 years old and that of Benin was 62 years old.”

You can read more here

At Arete, we are constantly monitoring the maritime space to provide you with the latest updates and services. You can click here to get in touch with us.

Arresting Nnamdi Kanu; Solution or Catalyst?

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The arrest, detention and extradition of the titular head of the Independent People of Biafra (IPOB), Nnamdi Kanu, has focussed the minds of Nigerians, and to a lesser extent the international community on the issue of partition in Nigeria.  The arrest was allegedly carried out by Kenyan security operatives at the behest of the Nigerian government.  He was subsequently flown on a private jet to Abuja where he was taken into detention by the Department of State Security.  Kanu has been characterised as a terrorist by the Nigerian Government and remains in detention in Nigeria.

Since his trial was delayed on 26 July, the flow of rhetoric from his supporters has increased in volume and its tone has become more threatening.  Kanu’s status as a British citizen has also drawn the UK High Commission into the issue.  A large UK law firm has also been commissioned to represent him as it has been alleged that his removal from Kenya to Nigeria amounts to an extraordinary rendition, which is illegal under British law, the protection of which Kanu enjoys.

Ndigbo commentators have been busy, with the Association of South-East Towns Union (ASETU) issuing a long statement on 27 July to the effect that the arrest and detention of Kanu will not address the driver behind the movement for independence as Kanu is only a representative of the anger felt by the Ndigbo.  It claims that the Ndigbo people are discriminated against, and the discrimination has deepened under the present government.  The following day, another statement was issued by a Kuwait based spokesperson for the IPOB calling on the Federal Government to released Kanu immediately without further charge.  It gave a deadline of 08 August, following which, if Kanu remains in detention, the South-East political region of Nigeria will face a total shutdown every Monday from 06:00 am until 18:00 pm with effect from 09 August until such time as Kanu is released.

Street-level chatter among ordinary Igbo people is somewhat more ambiguous, with popular opinion seemingly divided.  Many feel that Kanu is a troublemaker who has brought an unwelcome surge of security forces activity into their homeland.  They point out the impact that has on personal freedoms and the ability to trade in the established manner.  Some feel that he is nothing more than a gangster who is seeking to empower himself.  Others, however, are vociferously supportive of Kanu and the secessionist aims of IPOB.

In the short term, it is likely that the shut-down protests will happen and be largely supported, albeit reluctantly in many cases.  People must earn money to feed and educate their children and any regular or protracted interruption to commerce will divide opinion quite quickly.  There is likely to be an increase in the activity of the so-called ‘unknown gunmen’, which will see security forces, and police stations, in particular, being targeted.  This could trigger a very strong reaction from the security forces, leading to further recriminations among the chatterati and an increase in support for IPOB.

The knock-on effects for business are likely to be indirect.  However, workers being absent from their positions on Mondays will also have an impact on most commercial operations.  Additionally, the heavy presence of security forces will likely render movement on the region’s roads more challenging and time-consuming, with an attendant risk of travellers being caught up in attacks on security forces.

In the long term, it is certain that the arrest, detention and trial of Kanu will not force IPOB to disband and abandon its ambitions.  If anything, it is likely that the movement will gain strength and support, with international attention becoming more focussed on those centrifugal forces that are also driving separatist movements in other parts of the country.

9 Pirates and the first of a kind trial in West Africa

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In a revolutionary court ruling on Monday this week (5th July), a Togo court convicted and sentenced nine individuals to between 12 and 20 years in jail for maritime piracy. The incident took place in 2019, when the pirates boarded a small tanker, robbing the crew before being apprehended by the Togo Navy.

What does this landmark ruling mean for West African maritime security? How might it make the waters safer?

The conviction and associated custodial sentences of 9 pirates in a Togo court this week was a true milestone in the fight against piracy in the Gulf of Guinea region. The incident, which occurred on 11 May 2019 and saw the tanker G Dona 1 boarded, temporarily hijacked and robbed, has been well documented. This analysis will concentrate on the background to the court case and its overall impact on the region.

The case comes in the wake of changes to the Togolese Penal Code which in 2015 was amended to include acts of piracy at sea. The pirates, which included seven Nigerians, two Togolese and a Ghanaian, were arrested in 2019. The prosecution was brought by the present government – elected only last year – in what was possibly a strategic political message to highlight its credentials and intent with regards to countering crime both ashore and at sea.

Perhaps the most prominent aspect of the prosecution is that it happened in a country that hitherto has lacked any regional prominence in comparison to its neighbours such as Nigeria and Ghana. That the Togolese Navy managed to apprehend the perpetrators of the crime and bring them to justice is a clear example of what can be achieved if regional navies respond rapidly to intelligence and emerging situations. It has set a new benchmark for naval and coastguard operations, and it now behooves the better-resourced navies of other nations to emulate the performance of the tiny Togolese Navy.

Impact on Regional Piracy?

There are numerous maritime security arrangements and agreements in place in the region, including the declaration in early June 2021 signed by hundreds of international shipping companies, maritime organisations, and maritime service providers (See our 07 June Deep Dive – The Gulf of Guinea Declaration on Suppression of Piracy here). Most recently, on 11 July 2021, the Nigerian and Ghanaian navies agreed to integrate their intelligence and surveillance efforts, as well as develop personnel in the use of those systems, and also agreed to adopt a set of joint Standard Operating Procedures that would be adopted by both navies.

This intended collaboration between the two most powerful navies in the region should, if implemented diligently and efficiently, generate a positive impact and drive down incident rates – at least in coastal waters. There have also been numerous equipment procurement programs in several GoG nations, but all these efforts and good intentions have thus far failed to generate any significant lowering of risk to shipping and mariners in the region. The pirates have evolved and shifted their operations into deep water, thus avoiding the systems and procedures adopted by the littoral states, which have been designed to counter maritime criminal activity in territorial waters.

This case represents a paradigm shift though, as it has seen hefty sentences handed down to criminals who would expect only short jail terms at most in other regional states. The other key aspect of the case is that the group’s leader, a Nigerian going by the name of Peter Paul, was sentenced to 15 years in jail. Typically, in Nigeria – which is widely seen as the epicentre of pirate activity in the region – the top men in such cases escape custodial sentences and the junior members of the gang receive short prison terms. The length of the sentences handed down by the Togolese court will almost certainly have surprised the pirate gangs and their prominent backers in Nigeria.

It is possible that smaller countries such as Benin, Equatorial Guinea and Gabon will take note of the steadfast position adopted by the Togolese courts leading to potentially meaningful sentences being handed down by these State’s courts in the future.

Of the other regional powers, Cameroon has already successfully previously defeated a wave of piracy thought to have originated from Nigerian waters. Their response to that wave was highly kinetic and most pirate gangs that entered Cameroonian waters met their end when confronted by the Battalion d’Intervention Rapide (BIR). That past approach has meant that very few acts of piracy have occurred in Cameroonian waters since and it is likely they will continue to adopt such strategies in the future.

Like Togo, Ghana went through an election last year and its current government is determined to improve its security both onshore and at sea. It is likely therefore that we will see a robust response in the event that any maritime criminals or pirates are caught by Ghanaian security forces in the near future.

Ivory Coast is also stabilising after years of political uncertainty and social unrest; however, it is too early to say whether the Ivorian government will have the time or the will to address the problem of piracy in its Exclusive Economic Zone (EEZ).

This leaves the major economy and largest populated state in the region – Nigeria. President Buhari officially launched the Deep Blue Project to counter piracy in mid-June, which is hoped, and expected, to have a significant impact on improving security in Nigerian waters (See our comments on the Deep Blue Project launch 10th June here). Hopes and expectations aside, with the insurgency continuing in the north-east of the country, the enduring problem of Biafran secession bubbling away in the South and the emerging threat of a similar movement in Yorubaland, the government has duelling security priorities at present.

Nevertheless, even in the event that the Nigerian Navy and the newly launched Deep Blue Project have an immediate effect leading to prison cells full of detained pirates, there remains a huge question mark over the reliability and robustness of the Nigerian judicial system to undertake follow through action.

The above aside, and looking to the future, it is hoped the region will see more successful prosecutions of pirates as other regional states up their game in the face of the demonstration of capability and intent by the Togolese courts. As usual there will need to be a degree of both local (peer) pressure, as well international pressure, involved to ensure the economic protection of all states in the region from the scourge of regional piracy.

You can read the full article on the sentencing here