Has Nigeria’s Piracy problem been solved?

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Background

On 08 March 2022, the International Maritime Bureau (IMB) decided to remove Nigeria from its Piracy List in view of the dramatic reduction in the number of reported incidents of piracy in Nigerian waters.  Following the report attributing the improvement in security to the efforts of the Nigerian Navy, the Chief of Naval Staff of the Nigerian Navy, Vice Admiral Awwal Zubairu Gambo, said:

“We will sustain the tempo of our Maritime Security Operations efforts. As you are all aware, the NN is the cardinal institution in the maritime sector that has the responsibility to lead the national response and prosecution of maritime threats. I make bold to say that the NN made giant strides in ensuring the security of the nation’s maritime environment.  It is heart-warming to note the significant decline in piracy attacks by 77 percent on Nigerian waters as reflected in the International Maritime Bureau (IBM) Third Quarter 2021 report.  I am glad to notify you that the latest IMB report (just last week) shows that Nigeria has exited the IMB Piracy List. However, considering the NN’s lead role in the regional effort at combating piracy and armed attack against shipping, the Service will not relent.  Also, the NN’s effort at containing piracy in the nation’s maritime domain has earned us commendation by the Office of the National Security Adviser on behalf of the President Commander-in-Chief of the Armed Forces, Federal Republic of Nigeria”.

The reduction in the number of incidents reported in the region has been significant, with no attacks recorded in Nigerian territorial waters or Exclusive Economic Zone since November 2021 and just four incidents being reported in the whole of the last 12-month period – one each in April, June, October, and November.  

In light of the developments highlighted above, and given that Nigerian waters have not witnessed such low levels of piracy in any 12-month period since 2006, is there credible evidence to snow suggest that piracy in Nigeria is a thing of the past?

Introduction

The International Maritime Organisation defines an act in Article 101 of the 1982 United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS) as consisting of any of the following acts:

(a)         any illegal acts of violence or detention, or any act of depredation, committed for private ends by the crew or the passengers of a private ship or a private aircraft and directed:

(i)         on the high seas, against another ship or aircraft, or against persons or property on board such ship or aircraft;

(ii)        against a ship, aircraft, persons, or property in a place outside the jurisdiction of any State;

(b)       any act of voluntary participation in the operation of a ship or of an aircraft with knowledge of facts making it a pirate ship or aircraft;

(c)       any act of inciting or of intentionally facilitating an act described in subparagraph (a)

It defines armed robbery as:

(a)     any illegal act of violence or detention or any act of depredation, or threat thereof, other than an act of piracy, committed for private ends and directed against a ship or against persons or property on board such a ship, within a State’s internal waters, archipelagic waters and territorial sea;

(b)     any act of inciting or of intentionally facilitating an act described above.”

This analysis will consider all acts of maritime criminality that fit these definitions.

The analysis does not take into consideration criminal acts against vessels in ports, anchorages, and on the region navigable rivers unless they involve acts of extreme violence, kidnapping of mariners from internationally registered vessels, or hijacking of internationally registered vessels.  The analysis will examine trends and patterns of activity going back to 01 January 2018 in order to provide some context to the reduction in activity witnessed in the last 12 months.  

It is acknowledged that a great deal of maritime criminality occurred outside the parameters described above, but a full historical dissection of the region’s security history is beyond the scope of this article.

Historically, we have witnessed a number of evolutions in the maritime security threats that have plagued the Gulf of Guinea for almost two decades.  To examine some of the more significant trends and patterns we will consider:

The annual ‘Ember Months’ spike:

Local wisdom warns us every year to be more security conscious in the Ember Months – November and December.  Some people include ‘Octember’ in this warning.  It is true that criminality increases in the run into the festive season as people resort to crime to ensure they can take care of their families over the holiday season.  This phenomenon can be witnessed in the statistics for maritime and riverine criminality as well as onshore and urban crime patterns.  Perhaps the starkest example of this phenomenon in the maritime environment occurred in 2020 when at least 15 acts of piracy occurred in Nigeria’s waters (and that excludes robbery in the ‘brown water’ environments).  Previous years have seen an increase in the 4th quarter, but 2020 was demonstrative.

Mid-year lull:

In the years leading up to 2013, there was always a dramatic reduction in incidents in July and August.  This was attributable to the fact that sea conditions were unfavourable for small craft operations and the pirate gangs at that stage had not yet moved into the use of motherships.  From 2013, we saw a steady increase in the number of incidents in those months as the gangs used large vessels to reach further offshore and support small boat operations in deep water.

Election years:

Historically, as criminal gangs raise funds for their political patrons’ electoral campaigns, we have witnessed an increase in criminality both onshore and in Nigeria’s waters in the 12 months leading up to an election.  These spikes might be very localised, such as off the coast of Bayelsa in 2010, and not particularly evident in the overall statistics for the period.  

Changes – mother ships:

As mentioned above, the introduction of the use of motherships by pirate gangs allowed them to extend their reach, and from 2013 we started to see attacks occurring much further from the nearest landfall, and eventually the evolution of extended operational deployments into the waters of other Gulf of Guinea nations – with Nigerian gangs operating as far south as Angola and as far west as Liberia.

Migration to other waters:

The migration to the wider Gulf of Guinea environment also coincided with a more ‘industrial’ approach to kidnap for ransom activities, with pirate action groups (PAGs) deploying for several weeks and accumulating as many as 30 hostages.  This behaviour had clear economic benefits for the PAGs, allowing them to collect much larger ransoms in both individual and cumulative terms, and in so doing, dramatically improving their profit margins.  The gangs were clearly identified as Nigerian by the testimony of their victims upon release and also the fact that the kidnap victims were frequently held in camps in the Niger Delta.

Last six months – comparison

To illustrate the stark reduction in activity levels, we will compare activity in the last six calendar months (December 2021 through to May 2022) with the same period 12 months previously and also against the five-year rolling monthly average.  The following graphs are based on data available to Arete.

This first graph shows very clearly the complete absence of activity in Nigerian waters in the last 6 months.  The reality is that no acts of piracy were recorded in Nigerian waters in 8 of the last 12 months.  There have only been three other months (August 2018, November 2019, and August 2020) in the period Jan 2018 to Dec 2020 in which there were no incidents recorded in Nigerian waters.  However, in August 2018, an incident occurred in Gabonese waters that were attributed to Nigerian pirates, and in November 2019, five incidents occurred in the waters of Togo, Benin, Sao Tome & Principe, and Equatorial Guinea.  In August 2020, a single incident occurred in Ghanaian waters. 

An absence of reported incidents that matches the current hiatus in activity has not been witnessed for two decades or more.  However, the keyword is hiatus.  We do not know how long this period of grace will last as the organised crime groups (OCGs) that launch the PAGs likely still exist, still own their motherships and retain the capacity and capability to mount further operations at relatively short notice. 

This second graph shows the monthly activity rates since 01 January 2018 for Nigerian territorial waters and EEZ.  It is clear that despite the peaks and troughs in activity levels, the overall trend is downwards towards the current extremely low levels.  However, if we look at the next graph, which includes similar incidents in the waters, with the exception of Nigeria’s, between Ivory Coast in the West and Congo Republic in the south, the picture is slightly different.

This graph shows a trend line with a very gentle upward gradient, which persists through the currently extremely low levels of activity in Nigerian waters.  Nevertheless, the graph also shows a significant general reduction in incident rates in ‘foreign’ waters over the last 12 months when compared to the preceding 12-month period.  This almost certainly reflects the fact that most of the piracy attacks in the whole of the Gulf of Guinea are carried out by Nigeria-based OCGs/PAGs. 

As a more direct comparison, the following graph shows annual totals for the various territorial waters and EEZs of the littoral states of the Gulf of Guinea.

What is interesting is that even after the marked reduction in Nigerian waters, activity persists in the jurisdictions of other Gulf of Guinea states.  It also reflects the predominance of activity in the Nigerian EEZ, which is likely a reflection of the density of available targets, the ease of reach from the home bases of the PAGs, and the range of the mother ships being used, and the endurance of their crews.

It is thought that the PAGs operate in the waters of neighbouring nations in the view that the naval threat is lower in some of those states.  Of interest is the spike of activity in the waters of the Congo Republic in 2021, which coincides with the reduction in activity in Nigerian waters.

So what?

All of the above point to a number of key questions:

How long will the hiatus last?

This depends entirely on what is driving the absence of PAG activity.  If the OCG/PAGs have found another more lucrative or less risky revenue stream, then the hiatus is likely to last.  Of course, if the OCGs have responded to external pressure from the Federal Government then again, it could last – at least until there is a change of government.

Have the OCGs shifted their operations to another source of income onshore?

It is possible.  However, there has not been any noticeable spike in other criminality onshore or indeed the emergence of any new form of organised crime.  Oil bunkering is at an all-time high, and it is possible that some of the OCGs are also involved in that activity and have shifted their efforts into that arena.  It is possible, as the industrialised theft of oil and condensate no longer attracts the international condemnation and attention that the piracy was attracting.  

Have the PAGs retained their capacity and capability to resume operations?

As far as we know, they have not burnt their boats on the beaches.  That must mean they have either sold them or retained them.  Some of the mothership’s identities were well known and it is likely that had they been sold as they would have required a complete change of identity in order to operate unmolested by indigenous and international security forces in the region.  For now, we have no evidence to suggest that the capacity and capability of the PAGs have been removed from the OCGs.

Is this a reflection of a reporting anomaly?

This has been touched on above.  Reporting of activity in Nigeria and West Africa has always been incomplete, sometimes misleading, and sometimes mischievously so.  However, it is interesting that reporting of activity in anchorages and ports has also fallen away sharply.  There are lots of political and commercial factors that could be behind that, including the cancellation of the Secure Anchorage Area contract in early 2020.  We cannot rule out that the anchorages and ports are suddenly a lot safer.  The data would suggest that is the case.  Anecdotal information would suggest otherwise.

What could have forced the change?

Deep Blue:

The much-vaunted Deep Blue project that married NIMASA operations with those of the Nigerian Navy has been claimed to have changed the security dynamics in quantum leaps.  However, it has not been possible to find any substantive evidence that the Deep Blue project now dominates the maritime environment off the coast of Nigeria.  

International patrols – Danish naval action:

The presence of international warships in the region was certainly a game-changer in 2021.  Several interactions between western and Chinese warships and vessels under attack were reported.  The intervention that perhaps had the greatest impact was that of the Danish frigate Esbern Snare, which intercepted a PAG while in the act of attacking a commercial vessel deep off the coast of Nigeria in November 2021.  The incident resulted in four pirates being killed and five being taken into custody.  There have been no incidents in Nigeria’s EEZ since that event.

International political and commercial pressure:

One very interesting possibility is the international pressure that could have been brought to bear through commercial (mainly insurance) channels and also closed diplomatic channels.  The precedent for the latter form of intervention was apparently set when the enduring problem of extended hijacking for cargo theft was brought to an abrupt halt.  The cartels involved in that form of criminality simply ceased operating.  It cannot be ruled out that a similar intervention might have induced the pirate gangs to ‘seek other work’.  The commercial impact that the Lloyds Joint War Risk Committee classification of Nigeria’s waters has had on the Nigerian economy has been significant.  In November 2021, NIMASA stated that it was determined to have the War Risk Insurance Surcharges removed from vessels operating in Nigerian waters.  It cannot be ruled out that the federal authorities identified the big men behind the OCGs responsible for the piracy and persuaded them to ‘seek other work’.

Have the big men behind the piracy made enough money to ‘retire’?

This is another possibility that cannot be ruled out entirely.  The precedent was set when the kingpins behind the Movement for the Emancipation of the Niger Delta (MEND) were effectively bought off by the 2009 Niger Delta Amnesty program payments, and the award to their newly formed companies of huge contracts – mostly to protect the assets they had previously been plundering.  So major criminal actors do sometimes “read the tea leaves” and decide to retire while they are ahead.  On the other hand, it is strongly suspected that the PAGs operating out of Nigeria belonged to five or six separate OCGs.  It is unlikely that the bosses of all the groups decided to shut up shop at the same time.  

So, the question “What induced the pirates to stop their operations?” remains unanswered with any certainty at this time.  

What Next?

There remains a huge amount of uncertainty in the security environment in Nigeria.  The forthcoming elections in early 2023 will likely shape the future security architecture in the country for the subsequent 8 years at least.  It is known that the Presidency is greatly concerned about the currently held views of the electorate regarding security in the country.  This was brought to a head by the attack on the Abuja-Kaduna train attack on 28 March 2022.  A significant amount of energy and time has been spent discussing the various security challenges facing the country and the Presidency is determined to make a difference before the end of the year and the run-in to the polls.

It is likely the impact of piracy on the country’s economy has driven the launch of Deep Blue and the Navy’s focus on generating a safer and more secure environment for mariners.  The country now rests on a political fulcrum and the security challenges have the potential to tip the elections against the ruling party.  Therefore, it is likely that more resources will be introduced into the battle against the pirates being fought by the Nigerian security organisations in the coming months.

Nevertheless, Nigerian security forces have 39,700 sq. km to patrol and secure.  That is a huge challenge, and the assets and resources are not yet in place to ensure security for mariners operating in the area. 

Summary

Shipping companies and offshore operators should be prepared to meet the security challenges of short-notice or no-notice increases in the threats facing them in the Gulf of Guinea.  The threat currently is assessed to be dormant and it could emerge again very quickly.  Pirates live on the land and their families stay on the land (mostly).  They are driven and controlled, by onshore factors – poverty, greed, politics, bribery, corruption, and even adventure.  Nigeria is moving into an election process, and like any election in any country, it generates uncertainty and, for some people, fear for their future. 

Shipping companies should avoid immediately seeking to cut costs.  The situation remains uncertain, and the Joint War Risk Committee still classifies the waters of the region as a listed area – meaning they consider the risk to be high.  For now, despite the economic pressures being at an all-time high, shipping companies should avoid being seduced by pronouncements that piracy is a thing of the past.

Lagos Okada Ban: The Impact so far

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On Friday, June 3, the Lagos state government began crushing commercial motorcycles, popularly called Okada, which had been seized in the state. This is following a fresh crackdown in May on these Okada from operating in six local government areas – Eti-Osa, Ikeja, Lagos Island, Lagos Mainland, Apapa, and Surulere.
The Chairman of Lagos State Environmental and Special Offences Unit, Shola Jejeloye,  said the initiative has been effective since 1st June; “There has been more than 85% compliance; 85% compliance in the sense that we don’t see Okadas on the road, on the express any longer. The number has drastically reduced.” Recalling that the enforcement came into force on February 1, 2020, by the state government, Jejeloye added: “Since then, we have been on it. it’s is just that people believe in violating the law, which I don’t think is good enough in a cosmopolitan city like this.” You can read his full statement here.
Following the ban and punitive measures, Okada riders in the state have protested in various ways, leading to hotspots in the state.
On May 24, we shared general security updates with the public highlighting the impact of the Okada ban within Lagos state. You can read the security update here.
On Tuesday, June 7, there were news reports confirming that Okada riders clashed with Police and Taskforce officers at Luth/ Idi-Araba area of Lagos. Bonfires were lit on roads as the police mobilized security forces to prevent further escalation. Here is a video of the incident.
It is clear that Okada riders’ protests against the ban will continue to make movement within the state precarious, especially in the 6 local government areas affected by the ban.
Lagos State Governor, Babajide Sanwo-Olu, insists that the ban is here to stay and will not be revoked. To address the criticism and uproar, Sanwo-Olu announced the launch of 14 commercial boats and deployed a fleet of 65 buses across new routes to expand transportation options.
Arete recommends avoiding Eti-Osa, Ikeja, Lagos Island, Lagos Mainland, Apapa, and Surulere if possible, and where necessary, it is vital to have Close Protection protocols in place when moving through the aforementioned areas.
You can email us at info@arete-group.com for more information and to access security services.

Women in Maritime: Interesting facts to know

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On the 14th of December 2021, The International Maritime Organization (IMO) announced that May 18 every year would become the International Day for Women in Maritime.

According to the IMO announcement here, the day will celebrate women in the industry and is intended to promote the recruitment, retention, and sustained employment of women in the maritime sector, raise the profile of women in maritime, strengthen IMO’s commitment to the United Nations Sustainable Development Goal 5 (gender equality) and support work to address the current gender imbalance in maritime.

In support of this and as part of our celebration of the day Arete Africa has put together some interesting facts about women in maritime below.

  • The only way for most women to take part in running a merchant vessel before 1900, was through marriage or by being the captain’s daughter. Women were excluded from seagoing careers during this time.
  • According to reports at the time, Mary Patten, temporarily took command of a clippership in the 1850s. In July 1856, Neptune’s Car left New York City for San Francisco. Captain Joshua Patten was in command and accompanying him was his wife, Mary, nineteen years old and pregnant. She had married at sixteen and had already been to sea on several voyages during which her husband had taught her how to navigate. Mistrusting the first mate, the captain removed him from his position and took on his duties. As the ship was rounding Cape Horn, Captain Patten fell ill, his hearing and eyesight failing. Next in line for command was the second mate, but he could not navigate. Mary Patten assumed command, with the second mate’s help and the support of the crew. Navigating and caring for her husband filled every moment; for fifty days she was unable to change clothes. The ship arrived in San Francisco in November 1856. The insurers of the vessel rewarded her with one thousand dollars.
  • Polish-born Krystyna Chojnowska-Liskiewicz was the first female sailor to single-handedly sail the earth in 1978, with her trip lasting 401 days, having traveled 31,166 nautical miles. Beyond being an accomplished ship captain, she was also a shipbuilding engineer.
  • Kay Cottee would go on to be the first woman to complete a solo trip around the world non-stop just 10 years later, in her ship Blackmore’s First Lady, aged 34. Her trip was completed in just 189 days and was celebrated by 100,000 Australians waiting for her in Sydney harbour when she returned from sea.
  • In 2018, Belinda Bennett became the world’s first black woman cruise ship captain. You can read her story here.

You can read more about the history of women in maritime here and here.

Nigerian Airline Operators suspend shutdown

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On Friday, May 6, Arete news reported a planned shutdown by the Airline Operators of Nigeria (AON) due to the rising cost of jet fuel.

The shutdown was scheduled to begin Monday, May 9, however on Sunday, May 8, AON announced that they would not continue with the planned suspension of flight operations as earlier announced. The body clarified that their decision followed intervention by the government with promises to continue dialogue with operators in seeking lasting solutions to the astronomic rise in the price of aviation fuel.

The statement read: “The Airline Operators of Nigeria (AON) wishes to inform the general public that further to numerous calls from the highest echelons in government with promises to urgently intervene in the crises being faced by airlines due to the astronomic and continuously rising cost of JetA1, that the AON has acceded to requests to withdraw the action for the time being while we allow for a fresh round of dialogue with the government in the hope of reaching an amicable solution.

We have also reached this decision with the highest consideration for our esteemed customers who have been faced with uncertainty over the last few days and to enable them to have access to travel to their various destinations for the time being during the period of discussions with relevant authorities.

In view of the above and in the interest of national economy and security considerations, AON hereby wishes to notify the general public that the earlier announced shutdown of operations on May 9, 2022 is hereby suspended in good faith pending the outcome of hopefully fruitful engagement with government.”

You can read more here.

Travel Update – Airline Operators in Nigeria announce shutdown

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As the cost of aviation jet fuel rises from N190/litre in January this year to N607/litre in March and now sells for N700/litre, the Airline Operators of Nigeria has announced a shutdown starting Monday, May 9th.

The position of the operators was stated in a letter sent to the Minister of Aviation, Senator Hadi Sirika, by its President, Abdulmunaf Yunusa Sarina.

The letter read, “It is with a great sense of responsibility and patriotism that the Airline Operators of Nigeria has carried on deploying and subsidising their services to our highly esteemed Nigerian flying public in the last four months despite the steady and astronomical hike in the price of JetA1 and other operating costs.

Over time, aviation fuel price has risen from N190 per litre to N700 currently. No airline in the world can absorb this kind of sudden shock from such an astronomical rise over a short period.

While aviation fuel worldwide is said to cost about 40 per cent of an airline’s operating cost globally, the present hike has shot up Nigeria’s operating cost to about 95 per cent. In the face of this, airlines have engaged the Federal Government, the National Assembly, NNPC and Oil Marketers with the view to bringing the cost of JetA1 down which has currently made the unit cost per seat for a one-hour flight in Nigeria today to an average of N120,000.

The latter cannot be fully passed to passengers who are already experiencing a lot of difficulties.

While AON appreciates the efforts of the current government under the leadership of President Muhammadu Buhari to ensure air transport in Nigeria grows, unfortunately, the cost of aviation fuel has continued to rise unabated thereby creating huge pressure on the sustainability of operations and financial viability of the airlines. This is unsustainable and the airlines can no longer absorb the pressure.

To this end therefore, the Airline Operators of Nigeria, hereby, wishes to regrettably inform the general public that member airlines will discontinue operations nationwide with effect from Monday, May 9, 2022 until further notice.

AON uses this medium to humbly state that we regret any inconveniences this very difficult decision might cause and appeal to travellers to kindly reconsider their travel itinerary and make alternative arrangements.”

Earlier this year, Arete reported a strike among aviation workers in Nigeria here.  We will continue to monitor the situation and update accordingly.

 

Chinese Naval Base in Guinea & Its Implications

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For several months now western media has been speculating that the Chinese Peoples’ Liberation Army Navy (PLAN) is developing a position with the Government of Equatorial Guinea that will allow it to construct a naval base at the Equato-Guinean mainland port of Bata.  

The flurry of interest in this plan was triggered by a publication in the Wall Street Journal on 05 December 2021 that reported upon an apparently “classified” piece of US intelligence that was the cause of “great concern” in Washington.  

Indeed, this is no surprise as China wanting to establish a standing naval presence in the Atlantic Ocean, i.e. opposite the United States’ western seaboard, would naturally set alarm bells ringing.  

So what would be the likely impact of such a development?   In this analysis Arete examines:

  • China’s strategic aims;
  • The potential impact of the base on US and western naval strategy in the region;
  • The potential impact on ongoing maritime security issues in the Gulf of Guinea.

China’s Strategic Aims

US defence officials believe the Chinese want a base on the Atlantic coast where they can replenish naval combat units with fuel, ammunition and consumables as well as create a facility where they can repair warships.

Gen. Stephen Townsend, Commander of U.S. Africa Command, said in May 2021 that “The Atlantic coast concerns me greatly”.  His concerns are based on the short distance between the Atlantic’s eastern seaboard and that of the US and are most likely focused on the significant shortening of response times that the US currently enjoys and the potential for Chinese naval units to interdict western trade in the event of the current trade rivalry developing into a cold war scenario (or worse).

It is worth noting that China has a relationship with Equatorial Guinea that stretches back 50 years and its engineers have already made significant improvements to the port facilities at Bata – the largest city in the country. 

China also has a large diplomatic mission in the country and has made significant investments in the country’s infrastructure, including roads and hydro-electric power facilities.  Bata port currently has surplus capacity and has a dedicated basin for the Equato-Guinean Navy.  

Nevertheless, if China were to utilise the facilities to any significant extent, the presence of multiple naval vessels would likely impact commercial operations.  Therefore, it is probable that China will extend and improve the existing naval facilities or even build brand new facilities adjacent to the existing port.

Between 2014 and 2019, China was involved in 39 military exchanges with Gulf of Guinea partners, including the deployment of Chinese naval vessels which have conducted counter-piracy operations.  Of this presence, only two exchanges took place with the Equatorial Guinean armed forces.

Figure 1.  Gulf of Guinea showing location of port of Bata.

Figure 2.  Port of Bata, Equatorial Guinea. 

The construction of a naval base and the establishment of a permanent Chinese military presence in the region would reflect China’s strategic intent of ‘encircling’ the US in order to allow it to compete globally with US commercial interests.  

In 2017, Beijing first established a presence on the continent when it set up shop in Djibouti, taking over former French facilities and justifying its presence by mounting counter-piracy operations in the Gulf of Aden and the Red Sea. 

It is no coincidence that China selected Djibouti to establish its first major overseas military base, with Djibouti sitting on one of the world’s most important chokepoints for maritime trade.  China spent $590 million dollars on the project, and it now has a toehold on the continent alongside the United States, Germany, Spain, Italy, France, the UK, Japan, and Saudi Arabia. 

As strategically vital as Djibouti is, the US appears even more concerned about the potential for a Chinese military base on Africa’s western coastline. Dr. Freedom Onuoha, a senior lecturer at the Department of Political Science at the University of Nigeria–Nsukka, told Nigerian media that “A Chinese base in the Atlantic Ocean can play a decisive role in cutting off US access to strategic resources from many African states if conflict breaks out in the future.  In a situation of intense hostility or great power confrontation in the future, it makes it a lot easier for China’s naval forces to stroll up and down Africa’s Atlantic coastline”. 

Bata’s location is advantageous, sitting at the central point of the Gulf of Guinea coastline and enjoying the presence of the Equatorial Guinean island of Bioko off the coast – which would likely serve as a forward basing opportunity for defensive assets in the event of an international crisis between the US and China.  

Aside from the strategic military advantage such a base would impart, China’s growing commercial interests and influence in the country worries US trade officials.  American companies have invested heavily in the oil and gas sector in the country, with us oil majors and US service companies being pre-eminent to date in developing the country’s oil and gas resources. The presence of a Chinese military base would significantly elevate its leverage and influence in any future bidding rounds for future oil mining licenses in the country.  

Furthermore, Washington has recently criticised the government of President Nguema for its poor adherence to international human rights standards and high levels of corruption.  Such criticism will likely push Equatorial Guinea into the arms of a more ‘forgiving’ partner.

The power play between Washington and Beijing offers the chance for President Nguema’s government to leverage huge economic advantage for his country.  However, playing two global powers off against one another is not without its own perils.  

At this early stage, it is unclear whether the principal driver behind China’s regional ambitions are economic or the furtherance of their bid to become the pre-eminent global superpower.   Europe has rested on its historical ties and been less proactive in maintaining and indeed developing them.  This has been compounded by its reticence in doing business with countries that score low on governance.

China, however, has no such reservations.  Indeed, Chinese companies have far lower interest in local content regulations and are disinclined to employ local people in senior and middle management positions.

With regards to other nation’s interests the UK’s new global position, following Brexit, has reinvigorated its interest in its Commonwealth partners and the EU also recently decided to compete with China’s Belt and Road initiative.  

Thus, the stage is set for a contest between competing nations and trade bodies that may very well see African nations falling into debt traps, while western nations lose market share and influence in international bodies as African nations align more frequently with China.

 

The potential impact of the base on US and western naval strategy in the region

As the West realigns its energy requirements away from a Russia focussed supply market, the littoral states of West Africa, which all have oil and gas reserves to varying extents, have become more strategically important to Washington, Brussels and London.  

This renders the Gulf of Guinea countries and their maritime trade routes and hubs of increasing strategic importance as highlighted in our previous #AreteDeepDive.  

The presence of a Chinese permanent naval base in the region will almost certainly re-focus the minds of key decision makers in Washington and the US Africa Command (Africom) on how to counter the influence of the Chinese presence, and potentially how to neutralise its ability to interfere with trade routes deemed vital to western economic and security interests.

It is likely that the West will seek to establish basing rights of their own in the region, seeking to identify a country that is open to the attractiveness of huge investment in return for allowing a western military base on their territory.  

Likely locations would be existing port facilities that could be expanded or developed, new space created for a western airbase and an agreement to allow the basing of manpower and the pre-positioning of logistics materials.

Recent events however will have worked to Beijing’s advantage.  China will have watched the West’s response to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine carefully including evaluating the thresholds of how far the West can be pushed and what tools and strategies it is prepared to deploy to contain an adversary.  

The West, on the other hand, will have learned valuable lessons about how far and in which directions it can flex its muscles.  One irrevocable effect of the war in Ukraine is that the West is now alert to its strategic weaknesses and is beginning to re-arm and remobilise its military potential.  

At the moment, the focus is very much on containing Putin’s ambitions, however significant sections of the intelligence architecture and foreign policy departments of numerous western governments will have remained engaged in watching and assessing everything that China does.  It is likely that key military powers in the West, notably the USA, United Kingdom and France will seek to match any expansion of Chinese influence in the region.  

In the absence of permanent bases, it is likely that the US, UK and EU states will seek to have naval units almost on permanent station in the Gulf of Guinea should China’s plan come to fruition.  In short it would be highly unlikely that they would allow the Chinese to dominate those waters uncontested.  It might be that the UK and France look to their former colonies for support to deployed warships and the US to seek a permanent base for an Africom deployment.

 

The potential impact on maritime security in the Gulf of Guinea

Any foreign naval presence in the Gulf of Guinea will impose constraints on the ability of pirate action groups (PAG) to operate freely in the region’s waters noting that piracy incident rates have already seen a reduction in the last 15 months (most likely due to COVID and the effect on the world economy).  

Indeed, Western naval deployments have already demonstrated the potential for impacting piracy as witnessed by the Danish frigate HMDS Esbern Snare against a PAG on 24 November 2021 and more recently, on 03 April 2022, we saw an Italian frigate, the Luigi Rizzo, respond to a call by a ship under attack 261 nautical miles southeast of Accra in Ghana.  In both instances, the presence of the foreign vessel appears to have prevented pirates from carrying out a successful attack.

It is possible that the action by the Esbern Snare last November had a direct impact on driving down the rate of reported piracy incidents in the region, which are currently at their lowest rate for more than a decade.  The action by the Italian vessel will also have likely reinforced doubt in the minds of the pirate group leaders as to the viability of their operations in a significantly more hostile environment.

If the Chinese were to join the fight against Gulf of Guinea piracy from a permanent base in the region, it would likely also have a significant effect on pirate actions in the region.  China would almost certainly offer to provide an aggressive counter-piracy capability in the region as part of a hearts and minds campaign to portray their presence as being benign/benevolent.  

Of course, such action would support China’s economic interests in the region and assist in securing its own strategic interests and trade routes.  

In response it is likely the West would want to match any Chinese capability and presence in the region with the net effect being a (hopefully) more secure Gulf of Guinea for commercial shipping, which can only be regarded as a good outcome. 

With all the above being said pirates in the Gulf of Guinea have proven themselves to be extremely resilient over many decades and maybe an international naval presence in international waters will simply push the PAGs to return to operating closer inshore in sovereign waters, e.g. the rivers and tributaries of the Niger Delta.

Nigeria’s DSS Issues Alert on Explosives

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Nigeria’s Department of State Services (DSS) has released an alert about explosive attacks by suspected criminal gangs and the use of improvised explosive devices (IEDs) in parts of the country.

Read the statement below:

The Department of State Services (DSS) hereby draws public attention to plans by criminal elements to return the country to the pre-2015 era reminiscent of IED attacks on soft and hard targets in parts of the country.

Though there are already reported cases of such incidents in some areas, the Service has uncovered a ploy by suspected criminal gangs to forge an alliance among themselves with a view to launching further attacks on critical infrastructure and other frequented public places like worship and relaxation centres,  especially during and after the holidays and festive celebrations. The objective is to achieve some self-serving interests as well as cause fear among the citizenry. The Service, however, recalls its earlier warning that some groups and individuals were plotting to stoke violence in the country.

Following these, patrons, owners, and managers of the aforementioned public places are advised to be wary of this development and implement basic security measures to deter the threats. While the Service is committed to the disruption of this trend and pattern of violent attacks, it will continue to partner with other security agencies to ensure that necessary drills are emplaced in order that public peace and order are not jeopardized.

The full statement can be found here.

EU Donates 30 Boats, Security Equipment To West Africa

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To support the fight against maritime crime and other security challenges in the region, the European Union (EU) has donated security hardware valued at €5million (euros), including 30 rigid-hull inflatable boats and forensic equipment to Nigeria and other countries in the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS).

 According to the New Telegraph, the beneficiaries are Nigeria, Benin, Cape Verde, Côte d’Ivoire, The Gambia, Ghana, Guinea- Bissau, Guinea-Conakry, Liberia, Sierra Leone, Senegal, and Togo.

 This was announced and discussed at a high-level maritime security seminar convened by ECOWAS in Abuja earlier this week, under the framework of the EU-funded Support to West Africa Integrated Maritime Security (SWAIMS) project. It was stated that the equipment would be supplied by 2024.

EU Senior Coordinator for the Gulf of Guinea, Amb Nicolas Martinez, explained that the EU was a committed partner to the Gulf of Guinea region and would continue to provide extensive and targeted assistance to strengthen the critical features of the Yaoundé security architecture while cementing the long-standing relationship between ECOWAS and the EU.

Also this week, the first-ever joint event on strengthening Nigeria and the EU’s cooperation on maritime security in the Gulf of Guinea was held yesterday (Thur 7th April). , The event, held at Western Naval Command, Apapa, Lagos as reported in Vanguard was to improve operational coordination and capacity building exercises.

The European Union expressed its determination to partner with Nigeria to tackle maritime threats such as armed robbery at sea, and kidnappings of sea fearers, among others, in the Gulf of Guinea.

Resurgent trouble in the North-West

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Incident Details

At approximately 20:00 hrs local time on Monday, 28 March 2022, a train travelling from Abuja to Kaduna was attacked in a complex attack using an improvised explosive device to bring the train to a halt, followed by the use of small arms fire and a subsequent boarding of the train by the attackers.  

The attack took place between Dutse village in the Chikun Local Government Area (LGA) south of Rigasa Station and north of Katari in Kaduna state approximately 45 minutes out from the Rigasa terminal in Kaduna.  Reports indicate an unconfirmed but significant number of people were killed by the attackers including the train driver.  An unknown number of passengers were also abducted and taken into the bush.  Numerous videos and eyewitness accounts of the event have been posted on social media, which show the incident to be very violent in nature with the attackers firing indiscriminately into carriages packed with people. 

According to eyewitness accounts, the locomotive passed over the explosive device which then detonated under two carriages full of people.  Once the train was halted, the attackers killed the driver and entered the train.  They moved through some carriages firing randomly into the passengers.  Anecdotal information indicates the attackers also shot people trying to run away from the scene.  Among the fatalities was an unnamed member of staff from the Nigerian Airspace Management Agency (NAMA) and a female doctor who was due to emigrate from Nigeria on 01 April.  She tweeted that she had been shot in the abdomen and asked people to pray for her.  It was later confirmed that she died from her injuries.  

The train, which was carrying at least 970 passengers, had an armed detachment of Nigerian soldiers on board and this armed detachment reportedly confronted the attackers until they (the soldiers) ran out of ammunition, at which point they surrendered.  Other security forces reportedly didn’t arrive at the scene for almost three hours, by which time a number of passengers had been abducted by the attackers.  The security forces marshalled the surviving passengers together and marched them to waiting buses on a nearby road, from where they were moved into Kaduna, reportedly arriving at around 03:00 hours on 29 March.

The following morning the Kaduna State Commissioner in charge of Internal Security, Samuel Aruwa, stated that security forces had taken control of the scene and that passengers who had fled the train in the night had been rescued from the adjacent forests and rocky outcrops where they had sought safety during and after the attack (noting that this has not been confirmed yet by other sources).

Context

Kaduna State is becoming increasingly lawless, with numerous attacks on rural communities resulting in dozens of deaths and abductions.  For example on Sunday, 20 March 2022, 36 people were killed and more than 200 houses burnt in an attack on 4 communities in Kaura Local Government Area (LGA) of the state.  More recently, on Friday, 25 March, 50 people were reportedly killed when armed men invaded 9 communities in Giwa LGA.  

Perhaps most concerningly, this train attack comes just days after as many as 200 armed men on motorcycles breached the perimeter of the Kaduna airport in daylight hours, killing a security guard.  

This recent attack on the rail line further limits the means by which travellers can transit between Abuja and Kaduna with the parallel road route already considered as very high risk.  Indeed, reports indicate that even people travelling with armed protection teams are not safe from attacks by armed groups and kidnappers, who frequently pose as members of the security forces and who have even established their own illegal vehicle checkpoints from which they rob, rape and abduct travellers.  This apparently intractable problem is what has driven many travellers to use the train line instead of risking the road route.

This recent attack on a train line is not the first.  In October 2021, passengers were left stranded in the bush when a train was stopped due to the tracks between Dutse and Rijana being destroyed by an explosion. The attack also damaged the fuel tank of the locomotive and damaged the windscreen of the driver’s compartment. No fatalities were reported, but passengers were left stranded without security. The line was reopened after a two-day interruption of services with media reports claiming that the attack was carried out by members of Islamic State in the West African Provinces (ISWAP) and Ansaru.  On 22 October, media reported that the security forces had been in possession of intelligence two days prior to the attack forewarning of a threat to the railway, but the security forces failed to act on the intelligence thus enabling the attackers to carry out their plan. Later, on 12 November, in a wide-ranging review of internal security operations around the country, The Chief of Army Staff, Lt. Gen. Faruk Yahaya, announced the deployment of troops and Nigerian Air Force helicopters to patrol the route of the railway.

The north-west of Nigeria is now considered the most unstable area of the country, with kidnappings and community invasions occurring more frequently and involving more fatalities than any of the other geopolitical regions of the country.  It is estimated that armed groups numbering up to 30,000 operate out of rural areas and have gained control of villages and parts of the countryside in Zamfara, Sokoto, Katsina, Niger, Kaduna and Kebbi states. The situation in the region and elsewhere in the country drove the Northern Advocacy for Peace (NAP) movement on Wednesday 23 March 2022 to call on President Muhammadu Buhari to immediately sack the service chiefs over the resurgence of bandit attacks on communities in the region.

The increasing violence of the attacks in the region are an indication that at least some of the bandits are receiving training and support from ISWAP in the north-east of the country.  The increasing frequency of attacks within a 150-mile radius of the capital is of great concern and potentially signals a similar increase in violence in the mid-belt states in coming months.  Worryingly, the north-west is now reported to be home to several different elements of Islamist groups including Islamic State in the Greater Sahara (ISGS); Jama’at Nusrat al Islam wal Muslimin (JNIM); Al Qaida in the Islamic Maghreb; a splinter of Boko Haram popularly referred to as ISWAP; and the Fulani herdsmen of West Africa.

Frustratingly for the Federal Government of Nigeria, the issue of security for the rail line had already previously reached the attention of the Nigerian House of Representatives, who just 6 days before this latest attack was debating solutions to the security challenges facing the line, including considering building a $500 million fence along the line’s route to keep people away from the line.  In a statement they said, “The House is aware that the Abuja-Kaduna Railway is a standard gauge that runs through nine Stations from Idu Station to Kuchibon, Asham, Jere, Gidan, Rijana, Dutse, Kakau and terminates at Rigasa in Kaduna. The House is also aware of the need to provide perimeter fencing to avoid accidents that could arise from human beings or animals crossing rail tracks and install a digital security system to enable the operators to know when there is an impact on the rail, and consequently get the needed help”.  The statement went on to say that the aim of the fence was to prevent vandals and wildlife from endangering the operations of the railway and also to mitigate the threats posed by angry communities along the line’s route.  Additional to this, on 06 January 2022, the Federal Ministry of Transportation also commissioned six patrol vehicles to support the operations of the Nigerian Security and Civil Defence Corps and the Transport Police of the NRC in an effort to increase the level of security on the rail line.  It also announced that it has been looking at surveillance apparatus and fibre optic equipment to further improve security.  

Conclusions

It is too early to say whether the railway is becoming a strategic target for Islamist groups in the north of the country, however, it is, without doubt, an important commercial artery connecting the capital with Kaduna – often regarded as the gateway to the North.  The sustained, high-level interest in the security of the rail link between the two cities is testament to its commercial importance and the volumes of freight and the number of passengers using the route will continue to make the line a prime target for attack.  

 

It is also likely that the line will now take on a political significance as opponents and critics of the President seek to capitalise on this high-profile attack that calls into question his leadership.  Indeed, as we enter the 12-month point before the 2023 elections, security is sure to once again become a hot topic politically and this latest attack will certainly not help the ruling party’s chances at re-election.

With regards to the attackers they are sure to be emboldened by their success, and after their attack at Kaduna airport last week, it is possible they will seek to mount ever more daring attacks against political and commercial targets in the north in the future.  Sadly, as ever, it will be ordinary Nigerians who will feel the greatest impact of such attacks.

Addendum

Within 24 hours of this Deep Dive being written, and as predicted above, the gangs of armed men in Kaduna State have mounted further attacks and operations along the major transport axis between Abuja and Kaduna.

On 29 March, a group of armed men attacked Gidan Railway Station along the Abuja-Kaduna railway line. Gidan is located south of the location of the attack the previous evening.  Unconfirmed reports attributed to a senior railway union person, explosives were once again laid on the line, forcing the southbound train to halt.  There are no reports that the attackers then boarded the train or whether they were still present when the train arrived.

In a separate incident, on the morning of 29 March, gunmen blocked the Abuja-Kaduna expressway, in the vicinity of Gawu Village (unlocated), which is in Niger State.  They reportedly abducted a significant number of motorists and killed six Nigerian Army soldiers from Zuma Barracks in Suleja as they moved into the area in response to the incident.

In further news about the impact of the attack on 28 March on the Abuja-Kaduna train, it emerged that Muhammad Amin Mahmood, a candidate for the Northwest Zonal Youth Leadership in the recent National Convention of the All Progressives Congress (APC), was shot during the attack.  

Other notable victims included the Secretary-General of the Trade Union Congress (TUC), Barrister Musa Lawal Ozigi, who was among the eight killed and 25 injured confirmed by Transportation Minister, Rotimi Amaechi on 29 March.  Other reports indicate that the death toll is nine people.

A former deputy governor of Zamfara State, Malam Ibrahim Wakkala, also sustained a gunshot wound to the leg, while the Managing Director of the Bank of the Agriculture (BoA), Alwan Ali Hassan, and his niece, were reported to be among the passengers missing from the train.

The attackers have been described by passengers as being young boys between 18 and 20 years of age.  They were also said to have been wearing turbans and “didn’t look like Nigerians”.  They were reportedly shouting “Allahu akbar” during the attack.

Kaduna Airport Attacked

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On the evening of March 25th, it was reported that an armed contingent invaded Kaduna International Airport and killed a security guard attached to the Nigerian Airspace Management Agency, NAMA. They also allegedly delayed a Lagos bound commercial aircraft from taking off.

According to a local source the Managing Director of NAMA, Matthew Pwajok, said the guard at the site of the navigational aids (Navaids), about one kilometre away from the runway, was killed, adding that the technical staff ran for safety after the guard was killed.

Pwajok said: “It’s true, bandits attacked our Navaids site which is a kilometre away from the runway, they killed the watchman while the technical staff ran back, we alerted the military and they responded swiftly, the situation is now under control by the military, the few flights were able to take off afterward”.

Samuel Aruwan, Commissioner, Ministry of Internal Security and Home Affairs, Kaduna State, also confirmed that troops repelled bandits who attacked the Kaduna airport.

He said in a statement: “Security forces have reported that an attack by armed bandits was repelled in the vicinity of the Kaduna International Airport.  Troops stationed within and around the airport responded and repelled the attackers. However, the bandits, unfortunately, shot and killed a staff member stationed at the perimeter fence who raised the alarm on sighting them. Airport operations resumed with scheduled flights departing after the incident. Security forces are conducting operations in the airport general area. Further updates will be communicated to the public.”

The Kaduna State government also confirmed the incident. Governor Nasir El-Rufa’i commended the local security forces for their prompt response to the attack,  for repelling the attackers and sent condolences to the family of the victim. Read the full article here.