Elevated Threat of Terrorist Attacks in Nigeria

On Wednesday, 10 July 2024, a Nigerian media source reported that Nigerian security forces had recently been placed on an elevated alert level following  receipt of intelligence concerning planned suicide bomb attacks by Islamic State in the West African Province (ISWAP).  These plans included attacks by the terrorists against prison and oil and gas facilities in Nigeria.  The following day, the Nigerian Defence Headquarters (DHQ) confirmed the report.

While the threat is considered to be credible, there have been a number of similar threat reports in recent years that have either failed to materialise or been quickly and quietly defeated by Nigerian security forces.

Neither the media report nor the DHQ statement contained details of the exact targets, or the specific type of attack that was being planned, however the current trend in the northeast is for the use of Person Borne IEDs (PBIED), such as that witnessed at the beginning of this month which killed over 30 people.

The latest Global Terrorism Index is currently indicating that almost half of all deaths from terrorism globally originate in the Central Sahel region of sub-Saharan Africa, with Nigeria being one of only 3 countries to have not dropped out of the top 10 most impacted countries on this list since 2011.  Of note, Nigeria recorded its first increase in terrorism in three years in 2023, with total deaths rising by 34% to 524,  marking Nigeria’s highest death toll from terrorism since 2020.

Clients are advised to monitor local news and intelligence channels for latest developments and to reach out to our Team here – info@arete-group.com, for any specific advice, monitoring or reporting requirements you may have.

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